Download the presentation on One planet.
Since 1950 we have seen a dramatic growth in the resources we draw from the planet, and the emissions and waste we generate. On a range of indicators – greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater extraction, automobile production, de-forestation, declining biodiversity and so on – the pressures on the planet have been growing exponentially.
These trends have been referred to by some scientists as ‘The Great Acceleration’ (Steffen, Crutzen & McNeill). They have argued that our current era has seen the Holocene superceded by the Anthropocene, in which humans are now the key force shaping the geo-physical environment.
Wackernagel and the Global Footprint Network have measured the health of the planet’s ecosystems, and the demands humanity places on these ecosystems. They track the use of cropland, grazing land, forests, carbon footprint, fishing grounds and built-up land. They find, in brief, that demand exceeds supply, and estimate that our footprint is equivalent to 1.4 planets. We have overshot the capacity of the planet to absorb our waste and generate new resources.
Further Information
Download the presentation on One planet
Will Steffen makes the case for a new epoch – The Anthropocene. W. Steffen (2010) – ‘Observed trends in Earth System behaviour’ in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. Vol 1, Issue 3.
The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2009.
The Living Planet Report 2010.
Download the presentation on Climate change.
Since the 1950s, and with increasing urgency since the 1980s, scientists have been pointing to the serious implications of the global warming trend and associated climate change. The good news is that climate change is now widely recognised by governments to be a serious problem. Many businesses are taking the issue seriously, there has been progress in developing alternative technologies, and reducing the emissions intensity of our economies. The bad news is that absolute emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, and there are no immediate prospects of a global agreement on action.
The Science of Climate Change
For the non-specialist there are four points to make about the science.
Firstly, it’s happening – there is clear evidence of global warming.
Secondly, it’s us – human activities are the main cause of this warming, largely through the greenhouse gases emitted when burning fossil fuels for energy generation and transport.
Thirdly, it’s probably very serious and will lead to a range of undesirable and largely irreversible effects such as rising sea levels, an increase in extreme weather events, and negative impacts on eco-systems, and food and water availability. Whilst there is some disagreement and uncertainty on exactly how serious, the majority scientific opinion is in the ‘extremely serious’ camp.
Fourthly, only major cuts in net emissions can reduce the risk of ‘runaway climate change’ – probably to atmospheric concentrations below the current level of around 390ppm of CO2. Any equitable distribution of these cuts implies a dramatic reduction of emissions in industrialised countries in the order of 80–95%.
Climate change cannot be tackled if we continue 'business as usual'. A range of studies by McKinsey and others have shown that reducing GHG emissions is cheaper than commonly assumed, and is often cost-negative. Other studies, such as the report by Lord Stern, suggest that effective mitigation and adaptation can be achieved at a relatively modest price in macro-economic terms.
Further Information
Download the presentation on Climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced a Summary for Policymakers of its 2007 assessment.
The US National Science Foundation has produced an excellent video collection on the science of climate change – To What Degree?. The video Physics, Forcings & Fingerprints is a good place to start.
McKinsey has produced an influential study ‘Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy’, and various country studies.
Download the presentation on Ecosystem services.
Natural ecosystems provide a variety of invaluable resources and processes from which we all benefit. The 2004 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), a collaboration of hundreds of leading global scientists worldwide, identified four categories of ecosystem services:
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Provisioning – such as food, water, wood and fuel
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Regulating – such as water purification or climate and flood regulation
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Supporting – such nutrient cycling, soil formation and crop pollination
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Cultural – such as spiritual and recreational benefits
Unfortunately we are degrading most of our ecosystems, and our current footprint exceeds the earth’s biocapacity by us much as 60%. This reduces the services ecosystems are able to provide and in a number of areas we risk more extreme non-linear change, such as in the collapse of certain fisheries. Some of the most significant changes relate to:
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Biodiversity – the IUCN estimates that 21% of known mammals, 28% of reptiles and 70% of plants are threatened with extinction. Biodiversity loss is widespread globally and appears to be accelerating. Some scientists have spoken of being in the midst of the sixth extinction, the first major extinction period since the dinosaurs.
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Land use – by 2000, cultivated systems covered around one-quarter of the Earth’s surface. This is placing substantial stress on soil quality and the ability of natural systems to regenerate. More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years to 1850.
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Deforestation – Clearing of forests, for timber and crops, exceeds the increase in plantation forests. Whilst deforestation in temperate zones has to some extent been reversed, tropical deforestation continues at a rapid rate with major consequences for biodiversity, climate change mitigation, and ecosystems generally.
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Fresh water – fresh water availability is in decline, with severe consequences in some regions such as the Indian sub-continent and parts of China and sub-Saharan Africa. Population pressures have combined with excessive withdrawals from surface water and acquifers, pollution of existing waterways and the inefficient use of water.
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Food – since around 1960 food production has kept pace with population growth and there has been a decline in the numbers of undernourished people. Unfortunately, since around 2000 there are signs of stress in the system of food production. There are signs that undernourishment is on the increase, along with food price volatility of basic commodities, and alongside a growth in obesity. Food riots have occurred in a number of countries in recent years.
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Fish – the marine environment is also under stress and extensive overfishing has led to the collapse of a number of species and fisheries. Aquaculture has partially compensated for the decline in world fish stocks , but it too has a number of negative environmental consequences.
Further information
Download the presentation on Ecosystem services.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2004
The Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity (TEEB) 2010, synthesis report and summary for business
Biodiversity & business risk, 2010 World Economic Forum
The Living Planet Report 2010
Download the presentation on Poverty & inequality.
Poverty remains persistent and widespread in the world. On the narrow, income, definition of absolute poverty, the World Bank estimated in 2008 that 1.44 billion people (more than one in five in the world) live below the poverty line of $1.25 per day. About half the world’s population live below $2.50 per day.
Poverty is about more than income and new, multidimensional, measures have been developed. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) looks at health and education in addition to income. A 2010 study finds that about one-third of people live in multi-dimensional poverty, including 55% in India, 12% in China, 21% in Indonesia, 9% in Brazil, 90% in Ethiopia and 65% in sub-Saharan Africa overall.
Facts about Global Poverty
Four facts about global poverty are salient. Firstly, there have been some important gains over the past 40 years – average life expectancy and school enrolments are sharply up, as is average per capita income.
Secondly, whilst the percentage of people living below the $1.25 poverty line decreased in the 25 years after 1980, excluding China the improvements have been relatively modest – from slightly over 30% to around 24% of the global population. This was a period of substantial global economic growth.
Thirdly, there has been a significant increase in inequality, both within and between countries. Inequality is not the same as poverty but it tends to be associated with exclusion.
Fourthly, whilst economic growth is associated with income growth, surprisingly there is no significant correlation between economic growth and improvements in health and education.
A world of widespread poverty is undesirable and, arguably, unsustainable. A world where everyone lives comparably to the average citizen in the ‘rich’ world today, is also unsustainable in terms of the resources used and the waste generated. This is a troubling paradox, which raises questions about economic growth and our development goals.
Further Information
Download the presentation on Poverty & inequality.
The United Nations reports annually on progress in meeting the Millennium Development Goals for reducing poverty by 2015.
Download the presentation on Population.
Population has grown dramatically in the last 200 years. There were around 1 billion people in 1800 at the start of the industrial revolution. This rose to 2 billion by 1927, and doubled again to 4 billion by 1974. It reached 3 billion by 1960 at the start of the ‘green revolution’. Today world population is edging towards 6.9 billion and is expected to exceed 9 billion by mid-century.
The good news is that the growth rate is slowing down. Demographers make three major projections (high, medium and low), most recently in 2008. On the medium projection, population is expected to level off at between 9 and 10 billion, some time after mid-century.
Work by the Global Footprint Network suggests that, given current resource extraction and emission practices, the planet can sustain around 6 billion people at middle-income levels, and less than 2 billion people at high income levels.
Population numbers certainly make a difference, and multiply the environmental impacts on the planet. The Optimum Population Trust and others, argue that population pressure is a major driver of global unsustainability, and that measures are needed to encourage smaller families, and reduce the total population size.
Critics of this view argue that those countries with the highest population growth have the lowest emission growth, and that focusing on population diverts attention from issues of over-consumption. It is certainly true that the highest environmental impacts are associated with the wealthiest sections of the population, and that in recent decades output growth has been a bigger driver of unsustainability than population growth.
Further information
Download the presentation on Population.
The Population Division of the United Nations provides extensive data on population trends, such as the summary of their 2008 review.
The Optimum Population Trust argues there 'Too many people'. Critics argue that this amounts to 'Blaming the Victims'.